伊利股份(600887)

Expecting a strong 3Q result driven by industry recovery and market share gainWe forecast Yili to report 14% sales growth, 28% recurring EBIT (before otherincome) growth and 14% net profit growth in 3Q17, which should beat consensus'full year forecast at 10% sales/earnings growth for FY17. Particularly, the stronggrowth is driven by:

Industry recovery and market share gains through high-end products.We expect the liquid milk industry to grow by 6% in 3Q17 (vs. 7% in 1H17)and Yili's market share in liquid milk to increase from 33.6% in June to34% in September. High-end products, including UHT yoghurt, high-endyoghurt and pro biotic drinks, are the key sales drivers. Meanwhile, weexpect the lower tier region and special channel to deliver higher salesgrowth helped by Yili's increasing penetrations.

Our recent channel check indicates that its sales growth remainsstrong in 3Q. The Shanghai distributor indicated that its room temperateproducts grew at 8% in both 1H17 and 3Q; the Shenzhen distributorindicated its sales grew at higher than 10% YTD. Meanwhile, we find thatMengniu and Yili are revising up ex-factory price and retail price from July,implying that industry competition continues to ease down.

90bps yoy expansion of recurring EBIT margin. Our recent channelcheck indicates the price competition is stabilizing. We believe themore balanced supply/demand in upstream should also lead to a stablecompetition environment. Accordingly, we forecast a yoy flattish sellingexpense/sales ratio in 3Q17. The yoy EBIT margin expansion is mainlyhelped by lower G&A/sales from a high base in 3Q16, while partly offsetby lower gross margin on rising packaging cost and milk powder price.

Sales growth to accelerate in 2017-19

Liquid milk growth is recovering from low single digits in 2016 to high single digitsin 2017. Firstly, we think this is mainly helped by more balanced supply from2017, and we expect raw milk cycle to turn from over-supply in 2014-16 to undersupplyin 2018-19. Secondly, the recovery is also helped by trading up demandfrom low-end milk beverage to pure milk and yoghurt. Thirdly, this is helped byYili's increasing penetration in lower tier regions and special channels. We believethese drivers are sustainable. We forecast Yili's sales CAGR to improve from 8%in 2014-16 to 11% in 2017-18E.